The Ultimate Bellwether

     Marjorie Taylor-Greene's seat in GA-14 has been vacant since she left Congress on January 5th. Her resignation sparked a free for all in Republican circles in the district, which alone is an indication of how vulnerable Republicans see Greene's old seat. No fewer than 16 have thrown their hats in the ring.

     The primaries will be held on March 10th and the wide Republican field all but guarantees that none of them will get even close to the necessary 50% to avoid a runoff election in April. On the Democratic side is former Marine Shawn Harris, who ran against Greene in 2024 and had his ass handed back to him. Harris lost to Greene by nearly 30%. 

     Georgia 14 is a sprawling district that covers a whopping 10 counties in northwest Georgia, nudging against the state lines in Alabama and Tennessee. In 2024, Greene took all 10 and the only one in which Harris was competitive was in Cobb County. To look at the electoral map from 2024, most people would say that it's not looking very rosy for the Democrats in that district.

     However, 15 months is an eternity in political time. Since Greene easily won re-election in November 2024, a lot of Republican voters have grown disenchanted with either Greene, Trump or both. The fallout of their very public spat in the twilight of Greene's congressional career did no favors to either.

     So, suppose GA-14 went blue? Well, it would be like AOC losing her next re-election bid in NY-14, a deeply blue district encompassing Queens and the Bronx, in which congressional and state-wide elections going back decades always heavily favored Democrats. If that ever happened, Republicans would be short-stroking that all the way to the Rapture.

     Obviously, that won't happen in any of our lifetimes. In fact, it's far likelier that GA-14 could elect Harris.

      Out of all 20 candidates for Greene's seat, only Shawn Harris has a shot of getting 50% or more of the vote in the primary. Avoiding a runoff election in April would present him as a popular candidate at least on the Democratic side. Clay Fuller, a local DA who's seen as the GOP frontrunner and has gotten Trump's problematic endorsement, has been surprisingly measured and pragmatic regarding his chances. Recently, Fuller said when asked if the seat could be flipped by the Democrats,

     "Absolutely, and we've got to operate that way. If Georgia 14 turns blue, it would be a tragedy for the president's agenda, and we as a party need to start having an honest conversation about that."

     Republicans are every bit the political animals that Democrats are and virtually all politicians have a preternatural awareness of what matters to their constituents or would-be constituents. They know their disaffections and many tailor their campaign strategies to address those issues.

     But Harris is a known quantity in GA-14 and he did get nearly 135,000 votes in '24. That year, he ran against an established Republican in Greene. This time around, he won't be facing those headwinds.

     What worries me about Harris' campaign is that he seems to be relying on Trump fatigue to pull this out and he's going to have to give Democratic voters in that district more than just, "I'm not Trump." Voters tend to be pretty hidebound, especially Republican voters who see Democrats one-dimensionally as tax and spend liberals who want to take away their money. He needs to focus on issues that matter to those voters at the kitchen table. Immigration. Affordability. Tariffs. To assure them he's going to fight hard for ways to put money in their pockets, not subtract money from them.

     If he wants to reach out to Republican voters and Independents, then by all means, he should. In fact, he'd be stupid if he didn't. But he's going to need to do more than capitalize on exhaustion with Trump. There are enough Democrats and Independents in GA-14 to pull out this election. He just has to give them solid reasons to vote for him. And if Harris flips this district, it would be the ultimate repudiation of Trump's policies.