Sunday, October 18, 2026

October Surprise

      The phrase "October Surprise" became popular during Ronald Reagan's first presidential campaign in 1980. It was supposedly coined by William Casey, Reagan's campaign manager, although in reality the phrase first came to us back in 1968 when William Safire claimed that Casey had tried to use a similar tactic during the final months of Lyndon Johnson's administration.
     Originally, it was meant as a warning to Republican operatives that Jimmy Carter was going to pull off a foreign policy coup just before the election (namely the Iranian hostage crisis). With typical Republican rat-fuckery, Reagan contacted the Iranian leadership and asked them to hold off releasing the hostages until after the election and the rest is history (stealing Jimmy Carter's playbook certainly didn't hurt their cause). The Iranians released the hostages literally 60 seconds after Reagan took the oath of office.
     In the 46 years since Reagan threw his hat in the ring, "October Surprise" has become virtually synonymous with Republican dirty tricks. Opposition research, scandals, both real and manufactured, that always seem to come out in the 11th hour of an election. We see it every two years.
     We saw it last week and both times, two dirty right wing tricks came out of the White House. One is undeniable because Trump crowed about it like a rooster on a dung hill. That was when, days ago, Trump suspended a provision in a bill named after the late Senator Lindsey Graham that would've imposed sanctions on Russia.
     As we now know, Trump is buying large amounts of diesel fuel from Russia in a cynical attempt to lower diesel prices just before the midterms. This, of course, would bypass embargoes on Russian fuel as well as give Putin a fresh cash infusion so he can continue prosecuting his war again Ukraine, which is entering its fifth year,
     This has resulted in a lot of screaming from both sides of the aisle. The bill named after the late South Carolina senator passed with broad bipartisan support. Say what you want about Lindsey Graham but he was always a hardliner about Russia and could see them for what they are. And Graham's own sister, Darline, is joining the chorus of boos.
     The second October Surprise came at around the same time when the White House essentially throttled Starshield, which is the military version of Elon Musk's Starlink. Ukraine's military and intelligence apparatus heavily depends upon Starshield to counter Russian drone attacks. Musk himself came out and said the White House was directly responsible for slowing the service down to 100 mph, which recently resulted in the loss of Ukrainian lives.
     Slowing down Starshield's service to glacially slow speeds makes absolutely no sense unless you look at it from a Russia First perspective. As with the cash infusion into Russia's Treasury, crippling Ukraine's ability to defend itself from Russia's attacks only benefits Putin. I don't know what Putin has on Trump but whatever it is, it's much worse than the legendary pee tape. So why is Trump doing for him, especially as Russia is undermining our efforts in the Middle East? 
     Musk claimed that Starlink has no control whatsoever over its military analog but the fact remains that news came out that Starlink itself  began fixing the slowdown, even though it's still not up to nearly the speeds that Ukraine needs. So, if Musk had no control over Starshield, then how come his company Starlink began making adjustments?
     America First, my ass.

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