And So It Begins...

     Once again, the straw polls were wrong. The pundits were wrong. The media were wrong.

     Last night, former Congressman and now Congressman-elect Tom Suozzi reclaimed his old seat representing NY-3, the same one he vacated in 2022 to run for New York governor, setting the stage for the one man clown show that was George Santos.

     The Grand Poobahs of the Punditocracy said it would be a horse race, a narrative that's not only irresistible but essential to the mainstream media always hungry for high audience shares, link clicks and circulation. But it was never close. By the time Suozzi gave his victory speech, he was leading Mazi Pilip (oddly, still a registered Democrat) by over 11 points. As of this writing, Suozzi is ahead of Pilip by 7.8% with 93% of the precincts reporting, a margin of victory that hardly calls for recounts.

     But NY-3 wasn't the only place where there were elections. Also last night, Democrats clung to a one seat majority in the PA statehouse in Harrisburg.

     However, Suozzi's reclamation of his seat can and is construed as a bellwether for things to come this November. Despite being several thousands of miles away from the southern border, immigration became the biggest wedge issue in NY-3's run off election. But, if anything, this contest betrayed one thing- That Republicans are still, and failing, to find that one magic issue that will translate to wins. 

     In the lead-up to the so-called Red Wave last year that more closely resembled a slightly backed-up toilet, some Republicans idiotically tried to lean into the Supreme Court axing Roe v Wade. Then they found out the hard way that a significant percentage of even Republican women were in favor of some form of abortion. Look at Ohio's Issue One on last year's ballot, which passed by 56% of the vote. Then look at Kansas before that, which preserved the right to abortion. That referendum failed when just over 59% of voters rejected the measure.

     Those were just two landmark votes in crimson states that were largely driven by female Republican voters who are fed up with their male counterparts trying to control their bodies.

     Abortion is still an important issue, to be fair, and, if anything, the extreme rightward lurch of the Supreme Court energized female voters on both sides of the divide. It's simply that some Republicans, at least those not trying to run away from the rotting albatross of the SCOTUS' decision, are on the wrong side of the issue.

     Last night more than hinted that immigration is another issue that's proving to be a nonstarter for Republicans.

     Essentially, immigration is turning into yet another third rail, especially in immigrant-heavy Queens.

     In fact, Republicans tried to drive wedges through three issues: Education, crime and immigration. They failed, obviously, their policies are so incessantly odious to voters. And last night's election in NY-3 betrayed, among other things, that they're losing in what used to be a Republican stronghold- the suburbs. A recent poll shows that, not only did Biden take the district by eight points in 2020, the president leads Trump in the suburbs by a healthy 16 point margin and two thirds of suburban voters detest Trump.

     And the one time Republicans flipped NY-3 was because they elected a serial liar and fabulist like George Santos. They thought they were getting an entertaining, out-of-the-box Republican like Santos. Instead, they elected quite possibly the biggest clown in the history of US politics (not a mean feat).

 

     Suozzi also proved that Democrats can defend themselves on immigration. Republicans poured $8,000,000 into this race and essentially pulled a Heath Ledger by setting it on fire, as Santos gleefully screeched in his loser lap on social media today (Now, House Republicans are remorseful over expelling Santos). Biden has historically low approval ratings on immigration (even though he offered the Republicans everything they wanted in the recently-rejected foreign aid/border funding bill). 

     But the GOP's policies on that are, as always, cruel and stupid, and it seems only the right wing punditocracy is gleeful over assholes like Abbott and DeSantis busing and flying migrants to Democrat-run cities as if they're lost luggage. Liberals are decrying the inhumane way they're treating migrants and right wing locals don't want the migrants there at all and deeply resent their neighborhoods involuntarily being turned into sanctuary cities.

     Plus, if the Nassau County and Queens County GOP wanted to take on Suozzi over immigration, they honestly could've done better than to go with a candidate who was born in Ethiopia and served in the Israeli army, one who still clung to her Democrat-registered status while listlessly humping Trump's leg (Typically, Trump wasted zero time in insulting Pilip, which should come as no surprise to anyone who knows Trump's track record with black women).

     Look, Suozzi is no blushing liberal but he's a known quantity in NY-3. He used to be a Nassau County executive and represented the district for three terms before vacating his seat. He's portrayed, rightly, as a moderate Democrat (some would say a Blue Dog) willing to reach across the aisle to get things done. And, obviously, when he returns to Capitol Hill, he'll caucus with the Democrats and further erode Mike Johnson's majority that's shrinking faster than cotton candy under a power washer.